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The Democratic Election Is Under Attack: Candidates At Risk
Based on what I have seen today, I believe the democratic election is under attack. Before I start, I am pretty tired and made a point to write this before I slept. Sorry for any errors....
Let me explain my theory:
- What do I think is the goal of the attack? To stop Bernie Sanders.
- Who do I think is behind the attack? Big business, tech companies, the Democratic core infrastructure (Clintons, DNC, etc).
- What do I think this? We have past examples, and recent events are repeating history.
History - DNC/Clinton Attack Sanders in 2016:First, let’s quickly go back to 2016. The morning of the Democratic convention, the first take of the “Russia” hack is released. The emails showed how the DNC conspired with the Clinton Campaign to derail the election of Bernie Sanders. In short, the DNC worked with the Clintons to stop Sanders. In extra short, the election was rigged….
The news of the day read:
- NYT: “Released Emails Suggest the D.N.C. Derided the Sanders Campaign”
- Guardian: “DNC apologizes to Bernie Sanders amid convention chaos in wake of email leak“
- NPR: “Leaked Democratic Party Emails Show Members Tried To Undercut Sanders”
Now we have established motive and precedent.
2020, Where Are We Now?General background:
Since 2019, multiple Democratic hopefuls have put their hat in the ring, aimed to become POTUS. The 2019/2020 field was on of the largest ever, including over 20 candidates.
Through this process, multiple candidates were considered the “front runner”.
Here is a high-level overview regarding poll position over the months leading up to the Iowa caucus:
- Joe Biden was an immediate leader (followed by a Trump/Ukraine controversy, leading to an impeachment).
- Elizabeth Warren had her moment in the lead, but issues around her health care plan and the costs incurred slowed her momentum.
- “Mayor Pete” showed the field he was a real competitor, focused heavily on Iowa and the infrastructure needed to slingshot his campaign with an early caucus win.
We are 7 days before the caucus, Sanders leads, what is next?
The December ScandalsDecember, 18th, 2019
On December, 18th, 2019, the House Of Representatives approved articles of Impeachment against Donald Trump.
There are many moving parts to what I am about to explain. I will try to do that as clearly as possible.
What do we know? We know in 2016 the DNC and Clinton campaigns worked together to stop Bernie Sanders. We know that Bernie Sanders was leading in 2020 in Iowa. We might assume that the Clintons and DNC might try to stop Bernie again.
How might they stop Bernie?
- Stop Retail Politics In Iowa - Iowa is an interesting place to campaign. Their caucus is compromised of something like 1700 locations, rallies are often held in tiny locations (with even smaller crows), and last but not least, Iowan's LOVE to see/touch/heafeel their candidate’s. In short, you have to be in Iowa. You have to physically be there. You have to talk, directly, to your voters. This is how it works in Iowa. If you want to stop a candidate, you might stop them by NOT being physically in Iowa.
- Make The News NOT About The Winner Of Iowa - I am not 100% sure on the person, I want to say it isPat Buchanan (I could totally have this wrong, don’t judge me, I am kind of sure…), but from what I know, he said (paraphrasing), “Winning Iowa is like getting $100M in free press coverage”. Candidates spend time, resources, money, effort, blood, sweat, and tears in Iowa. This is their first stop. This “is” the first stop in becoming the Democratic nominee for President. Winning (or losing) can make or break a campaign. If you can believe Sanders might have been in a position to win Iowa, and that by winning, it would give his campaign a boost, you can understand why this would be a bad thing for his enemies.
So, let’s recap:
- People might try and attack Bernie (as they have in the past)
- The shortest thing to attack him on is winning Iowa
- You hurt him in Iowa by:
- Keeping him physically out of Iowa
- Kill the news coverage on the winner of Iowa
How did they hurt Bernie Sanders in Iowa?
Step 1: They kept him out of IowaTHE IMPEACHMENT TIMELINE
On December 18th, 2019, the House impeached Trump.
This is the flow of impeachment (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impeachment_in_the_United_States)
- First, the Congress investigates. This investigation typically begins in the House Judiciary Committee, but may begin elsewhere. For example, the Nixon impeachment inquiry began in the Senate Judiciary Committee. The facts that led to impeachment of Bill Clinton were first discovered in the course of an investigation by Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr.
- Second, the House of Representatives must pass, by a simple majority of those present and voting, articles of impeachment, which constitute the formal allegation or allegations. Upon passage, the defendant has been "impeached".
- Third, the Senate tries the accused. In the case of the impeachment of a president, the Chief Justice of the United States presides over the proceedings. For the impeachment of any other official, the Constitution is silent on who shall preside, suggesting that this role falls to the Senate's usual presiding officer, the President of the Senate, who is also the Vice President of the United States. Conviction in the Senate requires the concurrence of a two-thirds supermajority of those present. The result of conviction is removal from office.
In December 2019, Nanci Pelosi, Speaker Of The House decided to not immediately send the Impeachment to the Senate. She held it for almost 3 weeks.
On January 16, 2020, the articles were approved to be sent to Senate by Nancy Pelosi, initiating the impeachment trial.
WHY DOES THE START DATE OF THE IMPEACHMENT MATTER? SENATORS STUCK IN DC
It matters a lot. If the impeachment articles were sent the day after the House approved, the impeachment trial would have been done 2 weeks ago.
The impeachment is still not done.
As mentioned above, Iowa loves retail politics. They love to see their candidates. Want to stop a candidate, make sure they aren’t in Iowa.
The last 7-10 days of the Iowa caucus, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy K, were in Washington DC, and not Iowa.
Was this intentional? I am not sure, but the rest of what I have to say makes me think it isn’t a coincidence.
Step 2: Kill the news coverage on the winner of IowaWhat is one way to kill news coverage? Find new news, and they will forget about the old news…..
On Tuesday, February 4th, 2020, America was “supposed” to wake up, drink their coffee, open their news, and learn that some human had won the Iowa Democratic caucus. This candidate would immediately be one of the top (if they weren’t before).
If you wanted to kill the the news coverage of the winning candidate, you might created a larger news story.
What would be a larger news story?
State Of The Union - Donald Trump Style
A State Of The Union is initiated once a formal invitation is made by the Speaker of the House to the President typically several weeks before the appointed date. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union)
On December 20, 2019, seemingly out of nowhere, the Speaker Of The House, Nanci Pelosi, sent an invite to Donald Trump to address the nation on February 4th, 2020.
Obviously Donald Tump makes big headlines. He does this on a regular basis. Even when things are clam, he makes a splash. Donald Trump is not in calm waters; His economy is thriving, he was just impeached (and expected to be acquitted), and is more emboldened than ever.
My projection is that Donald Trump will NOT have a calm State Of The Union. I think there will be no lack of headlines. I think Donald Trumps State Of The Union will grab headlines for at least 72 hours.
In recap, the day after the Iowa caucus, Nanci Pelosi schedules the State Of The Union, almost guaranteeing that the news cycle and benefit of winning Iowa will be washed away.
The February Attack:Lets recap again:
- The DNC + Clintons worked together to stop Sanders in 2016
- Sanders has continued to have a strong chance in 2020
- At the end of 2019, the leader of the Democrats in congress, by choice, set the timeline of the impeachment to fall on the exact dates leading up to the Iowa caucus. This ensured Bernie Sanders would not be in Iowa
- At the end of 2019, the leader of the Democrats in congress, by choice, set the timeline of the State Of The Union to fall the day after Iowa. This will almost ensure news coverage of the winner is not maximized
Known as an almost “stone aged” process, caucus voters have always been counted by eye/hand and paper ballet. This is how Iowa caucuses work. This is how Iowa caucuses have always worked. Old, but reliable.
On February, 3rd, 2020 the Iowa caucuses commended. Seemingly going well, around 9pm PST, news reports began to tell a more confusing story.
All of the sudden, votes in Iowa are having issues. No one new why. For the next 1-2 hours, the news passed a round vague reports. About 12am PST, the news started reporting that there was a mobile phone “app” to blame for the election issues. A mobile phone app? In Iowa? As I write this, no one knows what is going on.
After a little research, it appears the app built for the Iowa caucus was built by a company called SHADOW.
- “Shadow, a tech company owned by Democratic digital nonprofit group ACRONYM, is behind the app, HuffPost reported”
- "Gerard Niemira, a veteran of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, is the head of Shadow. He previously served as chief technology officer and chief operating officer of ACRONYM, according to his LinkedIn page. In 2019, David Plouffe, one of the chief architects of President Barack Obama’s wins, joined the board of advisers for ACRONYM."
- "The Iowa Democratic Party reportedly paid Shadow more than $60,000 for “website development,” citing state campaign finance records, and a source confirmed to HuffPost that the payments were made to develop the app where caucus site leaders were supposed to upload their results."
Here is their website: https://shadowinc.io/
Here is their about us page: https://shadowinc.io/about
“We are campaign and technology veterans who have built and implemented technology at Hillary for America, Obama for America, Google, Kiva, Apple, the AFL-CIO, and the DNC.”
As of 5:48 am, PST, Feb 4th, 2020 there is no clear winner in Iowa. As we spoke about above, typically winners of Iowa get a large campaign boost from an Iowa win and the news/media coverage it provides.
As of 5:48 am, virtually EVERY democratic candidate is claiming to be the winner. They are claiming success in Iowa. They are now talking about New Hampshire starting next week. The news cycle is already dead. After the State Of The Union today, no one will talk (or care) about Iowa.
Final, Final, Final Recap:
- As of today there are no results, and no winner, in Iowa
- The blame on delay in results, is being blamed on a mobile app, from a company named Shadow.
- The team working on Shadow is:
- Hillary for America
- In 2016, the Clinton campaign and DNC worked together to stop Bernie Sanders
I think Sanders was set to win Iowa. I think multiple parties didn’t want to see that happen. I think they kept him out of Iowa for the last 2 weeks of the election. I think they setup the State Of The Union to distract from their plans. I believe the DNC built a failed app to create doubt in Iowa voting.
By Thursday, I think no one will talk about this Iowa issue. I think they are going to take this away from Bernie again.
We need to fix elections….