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Covid-19 update Wednesday April 1st
Traditionally the arrival of April fools day generates a day of mirth with news outlets and corporations around the world attempting to outdo each other with hard to believe stories or wacky new product announcements. This year’s April fools day seems to have been cancelled in most parts of the world by general consent (even Google has opted out) but in some parts of the world countries are making it very clear they have no tolerance for Covid-19 related april fools jokes. Thailand is threatening up to 5 years in jail for Covid-19 related April Fools jokes, Taiwan is offering up to three years in jail and/or a fine of up to NT$3 million (US$99,200) and authorities in both India and Germany have also said they will not tolerate it either (link).
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Virus news in depth
US Navy captain’s dramatic plea to evacuate coronavirus-ravaged aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt - the SCMP is reporting that Captain Brett Crozier has pleaded to disembark all sailors from the aircraft carrier onto land at Guam (where it’s currently docked). “We are not at war. Sailors do not need to die,” Crozier wrote. 4,000 sailors are on the vessel; the latest infection count has jumped to 100. Defence Secretary Mark Esper on Tuesday ruled out evacuating the ship, whose plight bears similarities to that on civilian cruise ships where the Covid-19 illness spread. Today’s CNN live blog (link further below) says that Guam’s governor is willing to let them stay in hotel rooms provided they isolate for 14 days.
Coronavirus: from China to the US, consumer behaviour radically altered as world retreats into ‘survival mode’ - The SCMP reports that amid mounting uncertainty, the coronavirus pandemic – which has claimed the lives of more than 41,000 people and infected at least 842,000 worldwide – is fundamentally changing consumer behaviour in Asia, Europe and North America. Consumer experts said the 2009 global financial crisis, the Great Depression that started in 1929 and the September 11 terrorist attacks give some clues about how and when global consumption might recover. But the complexity of this crisis, the number of variables and its magnitude make this consumer recovery unprecedented and difficult to predict, they added. “The coronavirus pandemic has completely changed patterns of consumer behaviour all over the world. People are afraid, and when people are afraid, they go into survival mode,” said Jesse Garcia, a Los Angeles-based consumer psychologist, who is also the CEO of market consulting firm My Marketing Auditors.
How China’s consumer companies managed through the Covid-19 crisis - The strategy consultancy McKinsey reports some useful survival tips from Chinese companies that are now reaching the end of the first Pandemic outbreak wave. “The biggest difference is in the mentality of the organisation, which shifted from being unsettled, to one of confidence after our response became clear, and people came to terms with ex-office work routines. Once the situation was under control, we shifted to strategic planning; looking at ordering remotely for the next season. We also began to work on revised three-year plans that included much more aggressive omnichannel targets, transforming our supply chain to be more agile and other strategic moves to grow the business” said Feng Hua Song, vice president of Erdos Group and one of the top-level executives participating in the roundtable discussion.
ER doctor in New York details dire supply shortages from the front lines of the coronavirus fight - CNN has a report on a per diem doctor who’s been working in multiple hospitals in New York City. "We don't have enough N95 masks. Some have run out completely. Some don't even have gowns," he said. "You can put me in the exact same ER and I would witness the exact same evolution of chaos." In another diary entry he wrote "Today was just a sign that things are getting worse and worse. I had about three deaths in the span of the first six hours, he said. "One was truly sad. (He) waited a few days for a bed, and it was too full upstairs so he stayed in the ER, and from Covid-19, he just lost his pulses. We worked on him for an hour, and then he died." He is using a ski jacket and ski googles as his own PPE because there are no alternatives.
Virus news in brief
Source today: CNN live blog or The Guardian live blog. Alternative sources linked below.
- China is getting mixed results in trying to open up its economy again with some places getting flare ups and having to shut again almost immediately (Guardian story)
- Hong Kong has ordered the closure of all beauty parlors, clubhouses, nightclubs, karaoke rooms and mahjong centers from Wednesday as the city steps up measures to combat a second wave of coronavirus cases. (CNN)
- Taiwan's economic stimulus plan to tackle the coronavirus outbreak could reach as much as $35 billion, President Tsai Ing-wen announced. Taiwan will be donating 10 million face masks to countries most in need. (CNN)
- Cuban officials announced Tuesday the country will suspend all international commercial flights to help combat the spread of coronavirus across the island. Foreign ships will also be required to leave the country. Cuba has recorded 186 cases of the novel coronavirus, with six deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. The additional measures come one week after Cuba implemented a 30-day lockdown, restricting tourists and setting up strict quarantine measures for citizens returning to the country.
- Flattening the curve - National Geographic has an interesting article about how the world flattened the curve during the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak (link)
- The UK will open the doors this week on what could soon be the biggest intensive care unit in the country -- and it was built in about a week. As the number of Covid-19 cases in the UK began to rise, the National Health Service (NHS) realized it might be short many thousands of ICU beds. It hopes the solution is at a massive convention space in London’s East End. The coronavirus field hospital will be called NHS Nightingale, after the pioneering nurse Florence Nightingale. When fully running, it will have 4,000 beds.
- The UK government is aiming to test 25,000 a day for Covid-19 within a fortnight, housing minister Robert Jenrick has said. Downing Street is facing mounting criticism over a perceived lack of testing compared with other nations, with only 143,186 carried out to date. By comparison, Germany is testing 70,000 a day (Guardian).
- Andy Slavitt’s daily twitter thread is out. The TLDR: 1) Trump yesterday at his news conference for the 1st time began to talk about 100,000 to 200,000 casualties. He mentioned that the number without action would be 2.2 million. 60,000 Americans died in Vietnam, 620,000 in the Civil War and 1.2 million in all American wars. 2) If you listen closely, you will hear Trump say 100,000 is the number and you will hear Birx and Fauci say 100,000 to 200,000 if we are lucky. 3) Numbers floating around the White House are 400,000 and some think that requires some optimism (Personal note: for comparison, 400k = the population of New Orleans or roughly half of San Francisco).
- The coronavirus pandemic has dramatically cut operations at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport (the worlds busiest passenger airport) by 60%, according to an airport official. In the past 10 days, operations -- categorized by officials as the combination of departures and arrivals -- were down from 2,700 on average to 1,100 on Monday.
- The Illinois Governor is frustrated: "I'm purchasing every ventilator that I can find," Pritzker said. "But we're buying them in 100 lots and 200 lots, frankly, I'm taking them 50, 20, 10, wherever I can get them." "We are going to run out of ventilators and the federal government really isn't helping at all," Pritzker said (CNN).
- Wyoming is now the only US state left that is yet to report a Coronavirus related death (CNN).
- The US Kroger supermarket chain announced today it would pay staff members who are still working during the coronavirus epidemic a $2 an hour "hero bonus." The extra pay will apply to all hours worked between March 29 to April 18 and will be distributed weekly to ensure staff members have extra cash (CNN).
- Remember Trump promised Americans a website that will direct them to a nearby Coronavirus testing facility? It turns out the website was being built not by Google but by a company linked to Trump’s son in law. The Atlantic has more.
- Pentagon has got 2,00 ventilators but has not been told where to send them. CNN has more, the backstory is a bit complicated; the TLDR is Civilian Pentagon officials had repeatedly said they are making ventilators and five million N-95 respirator masks available. So far only 1.5 million masks have been shipped by the Pentagon. Another 500,000 are to be shipped within days but HHS and FEMA have given DoD no indication of when or where they precisely want the other three million items to go. As for the ventilators, an HHS official told CNN that, "many of the DOD ventilators are deployable ventilators and require special training while the ventilators in the HHS Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) are the types of ventilators commonly used by US hospitals and are better suited for immediate use."
- Governors Fight Back Against Coronavirus Chaos: ‘It’s Like Being on eBay With 50 Other States’ - In New York State — the center of the nation’s outbreak, with at least 1,550 deaths — Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said on Tuesday that the country’s patchwork approach to the pandemic had made it harder to get desperately needed ventilators. “You now literally will have a company call you up and say, ‘Well, California just outbid you,’” Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, said in his daily news briefing. “It’s like being on eBay with 50 other states, bidding on a ventilator.” (New York Times article in full, paywall)
- CNN says that the major cruise ship operator Carnival is asking for a $6bn bailout as the cruise industry grinds to a halt (link)
Supply chain news in depth
Retooling facilities to produce ventilators could strain supply chains, medical device manufacturers warn - The Advanced Medical Technology Association (AdvaMed) says it is wary of invocation in the US of the defence production act which is compelling manufacturers to make medical ventilators according to SupplyChainDive. Their CEO praised the administration on Friday for opening up a "fast track" for automakers and non-medtech manufacturers to repurpose their production facilities to produce ventilators. At the same time, he warned "what we have to make sure of is that as new manufacturers get into the ventilator business they don’t overstress the supply chain" of component parts as well as raw materials. Given the "broad number of component parts that go into a ventilator," Whitaker contends the impact of the DPA could be "crippling." ResMed told MedTech Dive it has serious concerns about such companies pitching in. "We welcome non-ventilator manufacturers' help to build and distribute parts for ventilators, not the ventilators themselves," said a ResMed spokesperson. "Specialized ventilator manufacturers are best positioned to produce effective, clinically tested devices quickly; our top obstacle is the scarcity and increasing cost of ventilator parts. Therefore, non-ventilator makers can help most by making parts, not taking them."
Congestion looms at US ports as shops and factories close and imports pile up - The Loadstar reports that as retail outlets, as well as many manufacturing operations, in North America are shuttered, anticipation of a surge of imports to compensate for China’s extended lunar new year hiatus are quickly disappearing. Instead, as more containers arrive, there are concerns about mounting storage costs. US importers have not wasted time in shifting gear – having tried to speed-up deliveries from China a few weeks ago, they are now in reverse, trying to slow down imports, or cancel them outright. “Importers are cancelling orders left and right,” said Cathy Morrow Roberson, head analyst and founder of Logistics Trends & Insights. Others, she added, were deferring shipments or looking to extend transit times, all in marked contrast to the recent rush to bring in goods from China.
Bangladesh in lockdown as virus halts business and threatens the economy - Bangladesh’s key seaport, Chittagong, is facing heavy congestion in its yard as a government-decreed national holiday restricts the flow of goods. The government has declared a 10-day general holiday between 26 March and 4 April, barred people from going outside from home and halted all types of commercial activities except emergency services. Chittagong is continuing operations amid the virtual lockdown in an attempt to avoid vessel congestion and the creation of a shortage of essential goods in the domestic market. However, Bangladesh Customs is releasing only essential commodities, such as food grains, pharmaceuticals and coronavirus prevention-related materials from the port yard, as only a limited number of its officials are still working.
Forwarders set to hit reverse gear as demand falls and cargo starts to pile up - Forwarders are predicting “mega-congestion” in the next couple of months, as they attempt to do the opposite of their normal job, and slow the flow of freight says LoadStar. As shop, factory and plant closures continue around the world, the name of the game now is to keep inventory where it is – increasingly difficult as terminals, yards and warehouses become congested. “Distribution centres in Europe are geared around imports and can hold a maximum of two to four weeks’ worth of stock,” said one forwarder. “After that, the impact for goods such as homewares will be huge. Where is it all going to go?” RW Freight noted on its website that “Customs authorities in China have required all non-essential goods which have been loaded on vessels for export after March 27 to be unloaded.
How Panic-Buying Revealed the Problem With the Modern World - The Atlantic has an interesting article on the lessons of panic buying and also on the dangers of running the NHS at constantly full capacity instead of 85% capacity - it argues that our current JIT systems are very fragile and susceptible to unpredictable surges in consumer purchasing behaviour or viral outbreaks. “Temporary shortages are being caused by people adding just a few extra items and shopping more often,” said Fraser McKevitt, the head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, which monitors consumer spending. The company’s study of 100,000 British shoppers found that only 6 percent of those buying liquid soap, and only 3 percent of those buying pasta, “have taken home extraordinary quantities.” Yet that relatively small, unexpected surge in demand was enough to generate social-media snapshots of bare shelves at inner-city supermarkets. When amplified by the traditional media, those frightening pictures convinced more of us that there was a problem with food supply. And, like in a bank run, perception quickly became reality. Big queues started to form. Online slots for supermarket deliveries filled up. The situation spiraled. The article also discusses the impact of cutbacks in the NHS as previous governments strove to improve efficiencies and reduce excess capacity (viewed as waste).
PwC: Supply chains will broaden, diversify in the wake of coronavirus - Supplychaindive has a report on the latest PwC survey of chief finance officers regarding what they intend to do to their supply chains going forward. A growing number of CFOs expect to change the breadth of their supply chains as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to 50 CFOs, mainly from U.S. Fortune 1,000 companies, surveyed by PwC. Supply chain issues remain a top-three concern for roughly one-third of the CFOs in PwC's ongoing survey. Since the last survey "financial impact, including effects on results of operations, future periods, and liquidity and capital resources," gained the most ground in terms of CFO concern, while a reduction in workplace productivity, consumer confidence and not having enough information to make decisions lost some status as a top concern. Cost containment remains the number one priority for respondents.
A drop in consumer spending in Western countries is driving a new wave of blanked sailings says supplychaindive - MSC's decision came the same week Maersk announced it was canceling multiple trips (they’re both major container ship operators). The capacity reduction by these 2M members alone is equivalent to about a "21% capacity reduction in [Asia-Europe] trade," Sea-Intelligence Shipping Analyst Imaad Asad said in a release emailed to Supply Chain Dive. 2M is an alliance between Maersk and MSC that includes partnerships with other carriers.
Drop in box shipping contract rates points to 'a recession of seismic proportions' - The Loadstar (Link) says that long-term container shipping contracts have registered their first pricing decline since last October, prompting fears that the industry is heading towards “a recession of seismic proportions”. According to figures published today by Xeneta, its crowd-sourced freight rate benchmarking platform XSI Public Indices saw a 0.5% decline in long-term contracted rates this month, following “a sustained period of growth”. Year on year, the XSI was up 5.8% on March 2019 and up 2.2% from the beginning of this year, but with coronavirus lockdowns covering large swathes of global society, container supply chains are unlikely to avoid an impending economic recession. “This is a small, yet significant, step in the wrong direction for carriers,” said Xeneta chief executive Patrik Berglund.
Air cargo prices stabilising on some tradelanes - Loadstar says that some tradelanes are starting to stabilise. Airfreight prices out of Shanghai are continuing to surge, Freight Investor Services (FIS) and the TAC Index have revealed. Last week’s air freight rates on routes to the US from China rose 12.6%, to $5.72 per kg, while to Europe they were up 21.16%, at $4.58, “vastly higher than normal Q4 peak prices”, noted FIS. Much of the overall surge in prices to Europe was due to the 55.9% increase in rates to Frankfurt. However, FIS noted that the gains had levelled off slightly, in comparison with the previous week, “indicating a potential market plateau”. “This is shown in the final closing price for March, dropping 11 cents from China to Europe and a modest 4 cents from China to the US. “April and May prices are lifted by 5 and 10 cents respectively; doubt as to the strength of the future market has made the next few months far less predictable.”
Supply chain news in brief
- The UK/Ireland to mainland Europe cross channel company P&O Ferries is laying off 1,100 staff as its passenger ferries go freight-only says the LoadStar - the staff members will be “furloughed” and put on 80% salary via a government scheme.
- Singapore and Hong Kong have taken steps to permit badly needed freight ship crew swaps which had led to complaints at the highest level of the international maritime organisation (which is to seafreight what FIFA is to football/soccer). See here and here respectively. India is said to be introducing similar measures soon.
- Visual - Flightradar has given some visuals on the how much flights have reduced by (Twitter link)
- Brooks brothers (major US clothing company) has said it too is starting to make masks and gowns (link)
- The Effects of COVID-19 Will Ripple through Food Systems - The Scientific American has a fascinating article on the medium term future for the food supply chain. They say that staple crops are likely to be less affected by measures to control the virus, but farmers growing more specialized ones could feel the pinch.
Good news / Humour section
- A boss turned herself into a potato on a Microsoft teams meeting and couldn’t figure out how to turn it off (Twitter link)
- Medtronic (a major global medical products manufacturer) has made its ventilator plans open source for anyone with the skills and parts to make (Link)
- Xinhua (official China news media outlet) says 186 patients have successfully recovered from the virus and been discharged from a hospital in Wuhan (link)
Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.
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I will talk about the event and what will be announced from the first party to third party game announcements. I will talk about all of the 20/20 content not just the July event but I will frame it around the July event. This article is meant to lay out all possible mic drop moments and speculation of everything that may come so while I am touching briefly on things and this could be like 3 articles itself I will still just barely cover things but hopefully you find this speculation fun, informative and entertaining. I will write this in short paragraphs with headers so you can look through and find what interests you the most without reading walls of text. I went back and edited this took me quite some time so please do comment and keep the thread going a little longer.
Console LaunchI will try to not just make obvious predictions but to get to what I think will open and is what we are most waiting for. The biggest mic drop moment is that I predict that Xbox will announce Lockhart but it will not launch with Series X. I am not sure if it will be a full reveal but I do expect it will be priced at $299 and as low as $250 when it is shown in August and given a price and maybe a launch date after Series X. if Sony decides to make the digital model $400. Xbox Series X will be announced at $500. However, they will make All Access a huge thing and a new way to pay for and own an Xbox. All Access will be a program for $30 a month you pay $400 for a Series X and get 6 months of Gamepass Ultimate. The same kind of thing will be announced for what will be called the Series S and it will cost $20 and cost $200. Series S what Lockhart will be called will launch sometime in early 2021 or Spring 2021.
New XGS studio acquisitions, Partnerships & Gamepass infoXbox Game Studios will announce 3 new studios and two are being created from the ground up. One will be a Japanese studio in partnership with Sega that publishes smaller or mid-size Japanese studios and the first 3 to commit to publishing under this new effort will turn into projects from Mistwalker, White Owl games, and Grounding. Sega will also commit to bringing more games to Gamepass as well as Gamepass PC and support for Xcloud here and in Japan. They will announce that Sega will partner with Microsoft to help promote Xbox in Japan and help in localization and crafting games for the console in Japan. Xbox and Sega will also celebrate the 60 years in gaming by bringing select games starting with the Dreamcast to Xbox and Gamepass with a handful of titles going back to systems like the Master System and Genesis. Japan will get a specially branded Sega console as part of the different models available for the Xbox Series console in Japan. Europe and the U.S will get a bundle with Yakuza dragon celebrating 60 years of Sega and a custom console designed to celebrate Sega 60 year anniversary and Yakuza as a day one launch on Series X. Sega will also have a mic drop moment of announcing they will be making new exclusive games for the Xbox starting with bringing Panzer Dragoon remake to consoles and a New Panzer Dragoon ready by 2022 or sooner.
CD Projekt Red will announce that Cyberpunk 2077 will come day 1 to Gamepass and launch with Series X. CD will also announce a project to bring many GOG games the classic PC games they have ported or remastered into GOG will appear on Xbox and Gamepass. With a commitment from Microsoft and CD Projekt for some of these titles to get near remaster quality and features like 4K and HDR and other enhancements, as well as other gameplay improvements CD and Microsoft are working on. They will announce that as part of the Gamecore OS initiative that GOG Galaxy will be a launcher on Xbox and allow you to bring much of your PC games on Xbox as well as a link your account and allow you to do one sign-in access to Steam, Epic Game Store, and Discord through a Windows 10 lite mode or UWP app that is part of the new Gamecore OS built into Xbox Series consoles and come after launch. CD will announce that they also have something else they are working on with Microsoft at a later date.
Microsoft will tout their relationship with not only CD Projekt Red but Poland for tech, computing and gaming going forward and that Xbox Game Studios will announce that Techland will be joining XGS as the 17th Studio to join and Dying Light 2 will also be launching day one at Xbox and as part of the launch day line up and in Gamepass. This is my go big pick it is probably more likely that the game dev from Poland that is bought is Farm 51. The Astronauts or even Bloober but I think they are the least likely of the 3.
XCloud details and launch informationXbox will detail and show what is left to show off how Xcloud works its features. They will not announce when it leaves beta but they will talk about and announce the dates for XCloud on PC and more games and people that will enter into the iPhone XCloud beta. Xbox will announce that XCloud is part of Gamepass Ultimate and that they will also offer other separate plans and pricing will be revealed at a later date but that they are happy to announce that through All Access if you sign up for 2 years of Gamepass Ultimate after the first year you can upgrade for free to Xbox Series S.
Xbox Game Studios first-party announcementsXGS will announce what is expected a new Fable from Playground that has photorealistic environments many of them procedural it will be a more graphically realistic game with mature contact but still in the spirit and lineage of Fable and GAAS approach to multiplayer components and content. Ninja Theory shows off Hellblade and teases another unannounced project. The initiative also reveals Perfect Dark reboot that they collaborated with different studios on this including the Coalition and that it is a late 2022 project. It is possible they mention the other game they are working on or that the game they show is not Perfect Dark. At this point, I think that Perfect Dark is the most likely game shown at the July event.
As for the newest studios they bought I think they will mention that they have started work on a new IP but they are not ready to talk about it. Obsidian will tease their new Skyrim like game and announce DLC for Outerworlds and announce something in passing with Grounded. Inixile will show a launch trailer for Wasteland 3 but I do not feel they are ready to show their other AAA game they are working on. The last studio to mention of the recent acquisitions of Microsoft is Compulsion which I think shows an early announcement of their new game which is rumored to be sci fi based and have Bioshock feel, Uncharted like gameplay oand be in the horror game genre according to rumors.
Now let us discuss the core studios Microsoft started off with. Rare shows either a gameplay trailer or some gameplay or maybe a mix of both from Everwild. Coalition announces a Hivebusters DLC campaign and their plans for the release of content for the rest of the year and a trailer and gameplay for Series X enhancements on Gears 5. The mic drop of XGS will be Halo Infinite with a teaser trailer that goes right into at least 5 minutes of gameplay of almost open-world Halo where you will visit different places and explore large sandboxes and environments in different vehicles and setups. A brief trailer for MP which will have a lot of content and most or all of the MP will be free 2 play. The online modes will include a much larger and ambitious Warzone and a new game mode based on Classic Halo. Halo MP itself will be split into regular Halo modes and one based more on Classic Halo play and maps that can be downloaded separately from the new style modes and gameplay. Forge will be offered for both and they can be downloaded separately for old and new Halo. Last, but not least a custom Series X console and the bundle will be announced and it will drop with Series X on November 17, 2020.
The final studio is the latest studio XGS added which is Double Fine. Double Fine shows a gameplay demo or trailer of Psychonauts and gives a release date. Tim Schafer then announces it is working on several projects but would like to tease one very special one which is they will work with teams at Rare to make a new Banjo Kazooie game and Rare is announcing a full 4K remasters of Banjo Kazooie starting with the first game and that becomes another mic drop or "megaton" as Crapgamer used to say.
The final studio announcement is..A third studio will be announced and it will be another new studio in London and Glasgow, Scotland created by Microsoft with Dan Houser as it's head. Dan Houser is the writer of RDR 2 and co-owner founder of Rockstar. He is from London and I think he could be hired as head of a new studio with the directive to make and research new game types and tech to create narrative-driven genre-breaking games that lead to stand out AA and AAA games. The first studios and people he will work with are Hello Games and Brendan Greene. The New Studio will act as a hub or incubator for new games and composed of devs from Lift London Studio that was repurposed, the Elbow Rocket team that worked on Crackdown 3 MP and have DLala studios be an inhouse incubator studio to be a part of this new studio initiative and be a separate studio housed under them. The mandate will also be a promise to work with other independent and newer studios in London and U.K. Dan Houser will be given the freedom to work on his own creative project and announce it when ready.
Xbox Global Game PublishingI saved the last XGS studio that I will mention with some detail and that is their Publishing studios It is also a very important studio at Xbox and I predict it will have some huge titles to announce. My first prediction is they will announce a game from Crytek and the most likely game they will announce is a Ryse 2 by 2022 possibly along with that announcement will come an announcement of a full 4K remaster of Ryse and some rework of gameplay and maybe even content out sometime after launch window in 2021. Platinum Games will announce they are working on a new exclusive game for Xbox and it likely will be a spiritual reboot of Phantom Dust with a 10-hour campaign and multiplayer mode and matches out sometime 2021. Other studios with projects that are more far off are Moon studios with their new ARPG and Asobo with a separate project from or as they work on Flight simulator and a new Plague's Tale. Skybox Labs will also announce a new project along with Armature. There will be other surprises I can only think of but these are what I think will be a solid guess of what Publishing will announce.
Third-party games and marketing deals that will be shownAs for 3rd party, the surprises will be Capcom announcing a new game and or possibly bringing Streetfighter 5 to Xbox Series X as an enhanced exclusive console launch title. I also believe it is possible they will announce a first to console exclusive of a Resident Evil style remake of Dead Rising 1 using RE engine timed exclusive to Xbox or less likely but still possible is an Unreal 5 reboot of the franchise. Either way, Capcom will be there. So will EA and they will announce a surprise next-gen game with Xbox like Titanfall and it is another Star Wars game a spiritual reboot to KOTOR also timed or console launch exclusive, not ready until at least 2021 along with one of the sports titles FIFA 21 or Madden 21. Elden Ring will be there from From Software and I think Call of Duty will be on Xbox show with of course Microsoft having the marketing rights but no timed content exclusivity. Ubisoft will show something from Vahalla and the new Rainbow Six Seige. Bandai Namco will show Scarlet Nexus, and a release date for Tales of Arise and something else. That is pretty much it for 3rd party except for a couple of smaller independent developers some montage of the best ID at Xbox games coming soon at launch and beyond. The Mic drop will be Valve and how they will work with Microsoft on a few projects but announce they will bring some new exclusive games to Xbox starting with DOTA and Underlords to console or to Gamepass PC first. I think they will also announce that Valley of the Gods by Campo Santo is coming to Xbox as an exclusive and will be more AAA quality than when first announced.
New accessories & peripheral announcements for Xbox Series and Xbox One consolesThe one aspect of this new-gen that has not been highlighted and talked about is the controllers. PS5 has made a lot of noise about their Dual Sense. While much of what has done to revamp the PS5 controllers what Xbox did is not small and some of it has not been shown or highlighted enough. Two of the features that come to mind that I think Xbox will show in July is features like the work they did with haptic feedback. I saw a video I can not find that was Major Nelson talking to an Xbox design team member that the Haptic feedback has been improved in a similar fashion to Dual sense that is called Force feedback. I found an article in Gamingbolt talking about this and the patents filed. I will leave a link below at the end. Another talking point they have not gone into is the low latency software in the controllers that will also come to the Xbox One controllers and how it makes your game better. They will announce new Xbox Series X headphones and other accessories for Next-gen.
Partnerships for accessories and tech-related to Xcloud will also feature. Microsoft will announce or mention their partnerships with Samsung for Xcloud and or Game pass on TV and how they will collaborate on several things and talk about how Samsung Galaxy line will be the best place to play Xcloud on phones. I think another partnership you may see during the July showing that revolves around XCloud will be Razer. Razer will make an appearance somewhere in the show or later and will announce a new product line in time for Series X launch. A new handheld add-on for phones,a new Xbox branded keyboard & mouse for Series X and new premium Surface style 3D spatial audio headphones for around 250$ - $300. This may also be held back to August show but it is possible it could make it on the July announcements.
Xbox Series and Xbox One UI, Live, and features announcementsMicrosoft may either choose to talk about this right after the showcase at the Inside Xbox that follows or just mention it at the showcase and drop it in a Wire article with videos but the team will briefly show the UI that will be in 4K, their improvements to Live, and maybe a refresh of Live Gold that can just be replaced by Ultimate and maybe the return of a Silver tier for Xbox Live. Upload Studio will make a comeback and be backed up by open source communities like Github and benefit from or be geared toward Mixer and streaming easier to customize game clip video. Another feature that I know was being worked on that might show up is mods and it will come to Xbox. I think they may even revive the idea of a user creator store they had with the 360. As in, not just content for mods but other content and even Microsoft approved emulators and more user-created games and minigames in the store. Of course, we will we see things announced for Mixer and how it is tied into streaming, new original content, interactivity, maybe new signings and partnerships with influencers and a tie into what will begin a big marketing push for Halo Infinite which I have one more major reveal I think will be shown with Halo.
One key feature on Xbox One that will get further improvements and games added to it is KB&M. This will be announced along with brief gameplay shown of Age of Empires IV coming out in 2021on PC and Gamepass. It will come to consoles later but among the games listed to come to Gamepass console that uses keyboard and mouse will be Age of Empires 2 HD. Among the list or highlights of new titles using KB&M and coming to console will be Gears Tactics and it will come to this gen and/or only to Series X. Gears Tactics will come to console probably at the launch of Series X but it is possible it releases slightly before or after Series X launch.
The final surprise a glimpse at VR on Xbox Series console?The show will either end or open with Halo Infinite. If they do end with something else it is The Initiative. I have another theory and it's that they will end with a teaser for VR or Mixed Reality and maybe even a hint to other companion devices and peripherals to be shown or some announced by next year. The VR or mixed reality headset will be a partnership with Samsung or Valve and who knows maybe both but it will be a new model branded for use on Series X and PC but made for Xbox Series consoles. They will tease further with Halo Infinite experience of the Halo universe to come out sometime in 2021 or 2022.
This will be the final mic drop of that show and how Microsoft will show the depth of what they plan for next-gen and how they will expand and their influence in gaming will grow. Xbox will put people on notice that this gen's Xbox is different, better, and bigger next generation.