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Why China can overtake the US and become a Global Superpower
Why China can overtake the US and become a Global SuperpowerThis is a response to this post by Arly, this post will make more sense if you read their post first.
This is my first effort post I hope you like it.
Epistemological Status: Low but Sincere, I'm not an expert, I spent two days writing this up.
Thesis: I do not believe that China will certainly overtake the US, or even that there is a greater than 50% chance it will happen, however, I believe China will be a great power competitor on parr with the USSR, with the potential to overtake the US.
Why China is not a threatIn this section I summarize Arly argument and provide my interpretations.
I take Arly argument to be primarily about finance. Arguing that, like Japan in the '80s, China's leverage and demographics will prevent it from developing a robust consumer economy. China will be unable to overtake the US economically and thus will not be able to become the dominant power. I have several contentions where I believe we are nowhere near sure of this and Arly historical parallel does not have the predictive power they claim it to have. However, even conceding China's economic inferiority I will argue that China can be a serious threat to US hegemony.
The first section deals with how China has over-leverage itself and like Japan in the '80s will likely suffer long term economic stagnation as a result. A comparison is drawn between the amount of private credit china has taken on compared to other developed nations. China has increased its private credit 20 fold since 2000, compared to doubling in the US and tripling in Europe. By over-leveraging, China is taking out debt to pay citizens to engage in unproductive labor, such as bridges to nowhere and ghost cities. This debt will drag on its economy causing either a financial crisis or the proliferation of zombie companies.
Besides anecdotes about ghost cities, this is supported by China's high Incremental capital-output ratio. Incremental capital-output ratio is investment over GDP growth, if it is high then each unit of investment produces very little GDP growth. A higher Incremental capital-output ratio is not necessarily bad, it is simply the result of high investment because as more investment is available less profitable projects can get funded.
We have been promised a collapse in Chinese markets since I've been paying attention, it has yet to materialize. Obviously, this doesn't mean it won't, never short a bubble and all, but it makes me suspicious. Relevant to this is the fact of China's high gross savings rate of 45%.
China has one of the world highest saving rates, nearly 45% of the nation's income is saved, compared to 27% in Germany, 21% in Canada, 17% in the US, 17% in Portugal.
Nations with comparable saving rates include Ireland, Qatar, UAE, Luxembourg, Republic of Congo(not to be confused with the larger Democratic Republic of Congo). These fall into 2 categories: Oil exporters with large sovereign wealth funds Qatar, UAE, ROC, and foreign corporate tax havens Ireland, Luxembourg. The Soviet Union likely had a similar savings rate reaching 52% in 1990, however, this was the result of widespread shortages related to the collapse of its command and control economy. Japan was not comparable to China, at the start of the 70s Japan had gross national savings of only 25% and it only decreased through the 80s.
Arly makes it seem that Japan grew too fast and entered a bubble due to over-borrowing however if you overlay Arly graph of Japanese private credit with Japanese GDP growth we see that credit did not start to expand rapidly until 1985. Japanese growth began to stall drastically in 1988. The dramatic growth experienced by Japan was not a result of debt, however, Japan tried to extend its period of rapid growth by assuming large debts.
How did Japan do this while reducing national savings, the central bank imposed credit growth quotas on national banks via window guidance. This effectively led to continuous monetary expansion disconnected from the underlying reserves. This did not affect national savings and thus was structurally different from how China has achieved its credit expansion.
In fact, China can not engage window guidance or traditional monetary expansion. In economics, there exists something we call the impossible trinity in which a nation can control 2 of the following 3: capital flows, exchange rate, and monetary policy. China has chosen to control its exchange rate and engage in capital controls. Thus they have attempted to generate novel and awkward methods to drive credit creation.
To achieve China's credit expansion the Communist party artificially depresses wages allowing higher profits. These profits are owned by either institutions or the ultra-wealthy. Both consume a far smaller percentage of their income in comparison to the working and middle classes. In addition, capital controls force this wealth to be invested in China or on Chinese controlled projects. Yes, a significant amount finds its way abroad but far more would without China's capital controls. This gives China's financial sector the monetary base to provide far more leverage to projects of questionable productivity.
This is why China has been able to continue its debt-driven expansion longer than Japan, by relying on depressed consumption rather than central bank purchases. Will it continue indefinitely? Nobody knows, however, this is structurally different than Japan's asset bubble, it has lasted much longer and we have no reason to believe that it is not indefinitely sustainable. Ultimately this is not relevant to my main argument as I will argue that even an economically crippled China is a serious threat.
Arly demographic argument sounds as follows. China has a sharply aging population. As more people age out of the workforce they consume less. Thus, as domestic consumption shrinks, larger sections of the Chinese economy must become export-oriented. This dooms any attempt for the Chinese to develop a robust consumer economy and leaves them dependent on international trade for economic growth. Arly shows several counties that have similar demographic profiles and how they are export-oriented economies.
I dislike how Arly structured their rendition of this argument, they claimed that people engage in more saving but
This is contradicted by life-cycle and permanent income theories, however, while providing value these theories are contradicted by numerous empirical studies and by just looking at BLS data 1 2 3.
A cursory glance some charts shows the aging of Japan seems roughly correlated with the percent export industries. This does not correspond to a current account surplus which I at first assumed it would.
However correlation does not imply causation and Japan is a sample size of 1, I can't find anything on the internet that supports this claim. Arly used the fact that savings increase in aging populations but, on the contrary, savings actually fall because retires spend down savings. The above link also claims that aging economies should experience current account declines. This claims that the aging populations of East Asia are opportunities for US exporters as retirees spend down savings on imports. None of these point to aging populations leading to dependence on exports. If there are better arguments I'd be interested in reading them.
If the argument is true china is limited because a great power must be free to act. A large export sector makes the Chinese government beholden to international interests and unfree to pursue its national interests. The US is not dependent on exports or imports and does most of its trade with Canada and Mexico which are staunch allies. This gives the US broad latitude to act. The US has many other advantages, such as the world reserve currency and centrality in International institutions.
I argue that the CCP has demonstrated a willingness to trade growth for national pride and internal control. While slower growth will result in internal descent China is not a democratic or authoritarian state, it is a totalitarian state. Totalitarian states can immiserate their populations for government directives far more than other states. China has the state capacity to eliminate and contain dissenting elements, it can maintain the industries necessary for a 21st-century military without civilian equivalent industries.
History does not repeat, but it does rhymeI'm not a huge fan of historical parallels, the entirety of history informs modernity but nothing is a carbon copy. While obvious, seeing current events as a copy of historical events seeps into analysis that overuses history with insufficient rigor. However, it makes good rhetoric and can help communicate intuitively what may need books to understand deeply. I will make an argument from historical parallels in this section, take it for what it is.
I believe that the correct historical parallel for China is not Japan but Nazi Germany. A large, technologically advanced, debt-saddled, shaky economy ruled by a nationalistic, expansionistic, personality cult.
There exists a common false belief that nazi policy was successful at spurring economic growth after the failures of the Weimar Republic. This is untrue, the average living standard of German families fell during their control pre-war. Partly this is the result of propaganda, however, they did succeed in reducing unemployment, and increasing weekly earnings. This was accomplished [primarily] via a deficit-financed military build-up.
Separate from the economic ravages of the First World War and the Great Depression, Germany had a massive industrial capacity. Germany had a large well-educated population, 61 million in 1930. For context, France had only 41 million. As the Nazi Party centralized political control they both stopped being dependent on public goodwill and were more adept at manufacturing it with propaganda. Thus the German economy shifted from a consumer economy to an economy oriented around military production. Throughout the war German living standards fell, this did not weaken the regime.
The German regime managed to disconnect power from the well being of the population, this allowed them to act internationally without caring how it affected their economy. The was one exception to this, oil. Until the Molotov Ribbentrop pact, German war planners were extremely concerned with the lack of oil deposits within axis lands. It could be argued that the invasion of the Soviet Union could not have proceeded without access to the Romanian oil fields. When the wartime economy of the German Reich began collapsing towards the end of the war it was not from financial crashes or the grinding misery of the population, it was because allies were destroying factories and resource extraction facilities. The German war economy continued to its high output of r&d because research centers were not targeted by allied bombing. Germans were the only power to use jet aircraft in the Second World War, and the V2 rockets were not replicated by the allied powers.
Arly and many others contend that major powers must have a strong economy to support power projections. This is an old Anglo-American fallacy, repeated about every global competitor since the Kaiser. Germany was defeated twice by men on the field of battle. The Soviet Union collapsed when political liberalization and democratization showed everyone hated the regime. The Soviet Union did not need to liberalize, they could have become a massive North Korea and we would still be in a nuclear standoff with them.
If the CCP manages to disconnect their political power from popular support China only needs industrial capacity and technological strength in certain relevant arias. The Chinese government understands this. This is why they are pushing so hard to create their dystopian surveillance state and investing in unprofitable port infrastructure. They are not completely disconnected from popular support yet, the genocide in Xinjiang is absorbing a large amount of state capacity at the moment. But when they do they will have a massive highly educated population they can dedicate to military and paramilitary operations. Just like the 3rd Reich, they will possess the capacity to surpass the established powers.
Perhaps I have focused too much on the military aspect of being a world power, perhaps in the modern world soft power is more important. I believe that the same arguments around the production of military equipment apply to soft power. Paying for allies, production of propaganda, technical advisors can all be produced by dedicated programs. China will be at a disadvantage if they need to produce these with widespread immiseration but it is well within the range of possibilities.
Some people believe the axis could not have won the Second World War, I disagree. If Germany had not invaded the USSR or the Soviet government had collapsed like the tsar the allies did not have the stomach to absorb the millions of casualties that invading mainland Europe would have taken. Just look at the size of the battles on the eastern front. Even as the allies marched through France the majority of the, now wrecked, German army was deployed against the Soviets. But that's a different post.
China is not 1980's Japan. China isn't exactly anything we have seen but it is useful to compare it to Nazi Germany. The CCP is creating a totalitarian state where government power is disconnected from the popular well being. A large well-educated population can be directed to military and technological efforts and place the CCP on equal footing as the US regardless of economic contraction or the suffering of the Chinese people. This is comparable to the 3rd Reich that engaged in similar policies. While Nazi Germany lost world war 2 it was, by any reasonable definition, a peer competitor. We should not underestimate the CCP, they have the potential to surpass the US.
ConclusionI have presented counterpoints against Arly arguments that china cannot sustain growth. China has financed its growth via different mechanisms than Japan did and will not necessarily follow the same path. While old people do consume less, aging nations have lower savings than the equivalent younger nation. I was unable to find literature that supported Arly claims about aging nations being forced to develop export sectors.
I do believe that the balance of probabilities is on the side of China heading towards some sort of long term economic weakness. Most likely from having to support an aging population with either a social safety net or with informal transfers from children to parents. I think the Chinese baking system will likely create and has created zombie companies but we don't know this yet. Even if China were to enter stagnation at the GDP per capita of Japan their economy would be double the size of the US economy(40 trillion USD). China is not doomed to economic weakness versus the US.
Even if China is economically weak compared to the US they can still be a peer threat because they are a totalitarian state. Totalitarian states can sacrifice the well being of their population and orient large sections of their economy to great power competition whatever form it may take. This allows the CCP to engage far above its economic weight in international competition.