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What role does climate change play in the coming collapse?
For the past 10 years, I've been on a journey to understand the root cause behind the inequality and instability I have witnessed steadily growing in my society. This journey has lead me to enough concrete evidence that I now believe a global societal collapse of some kind is approaching quickly and without rapid, highly-coordinated, and historically unprecedented worldwide governmental intervention, this collapse will occur.
While history tells us that the collapse of civilization is not a new phenomenon and is more than likely inevitable, the timing of civilization's next collapse, both its initiation and duration, are something I have not found an answer to in the study of previous collapses. Though wealth inequality in my country (USA) has now exceeded the level of inequality achieved before the massive stock market crash of 1929 and the socio-economic strife that led to the Nazi uprising in Germany, there is no concrete proof that such inequality will result in similarly disruptive events within a similar time frame.
However, the effects of anthropogenic global warming predicted to occur within the next 3 decades do appear, to me at least, to pose an unavoidable obstacle to the continued use of our current systems for powering post-industrial societies. Furthermore, without modification to our current systems, it appears as though a continued increase in global temperature over the next 2-3 decades will create environmental conditions that are inhospitable to food production in large enough segments of the world that a collapse of society may occur due to food insecurity.
According to the most recent report I can find by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), a 1-degree increase in global temperature has already occured and temperature increases will continue to occur even if all anthropogenic temperature increasing activities cease immediately. However, if we are able to begin decreasing these activities and continue to decrease them at a rate that brings us to "net-zero" by 2050, we will be able to prevent global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees. The remainder of the report details the effects of temperature change if we do not contain it to 1.5 degrees or less. And while the report does show the significant increase in detrimental effects to society that a temperature increase of 2 degrees would have when compared with an increase of only 1.5 degrees, the report does not indicate whether these changes, either at or above 1.5 degrees is within a tolerable limit for the survival of our current civilization.
In the context of everything I have just written, my hope is that you might be able to help me answer the following two questions:
1) Is a change of 1.5 degrees or less survivable? ( I define "survivable" as a continuation of current systems and processes even with a significant change or modification.)
I have seen reports detailing the detrimental effects on food crops from the approx. 1-degree increase in temperature that has already occurred and I am wondering if you know what effect these individual injuries to our global food production systems will have on society as a whole. Could a hypothetical 1.2 billion people die of starvation due to loss of food crops while the rest of the world just continues on as if nothing ever happened? Would there be compounding effects from these types of changes even if global temperature ceased to rise?
2) If a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees or less is survivable, what degree of confidence do you have that the current governments of the world will be able to effect and enforce the changes necessary to achieve this goal?
The report linked above indicates that the world would need to enter into an extremely steep period of declining global greenhouse gas emissions starting now and continue that trend until 2050 for a net increase of zero emissions. Does that seem: A) Technically possible given what you know about the logistics involved with replacing our current systems with renewables and new technologies for carbon capture from the atmosphere?
B) Realistically probable given what you know of history and human psychology? Will our people call for change? Will our governmental leaders create the policy? Will corporations follow the rules? And will it all be enough?
Lastly, if it is your belief that the collapse of civilization due to climate change is unavoidable, when do you think it will occur? I know some of you believe it has already begun, while others think it is still a few decades away. But from what I gather, this has more to do with your definition of the term "collapse" than the actual timeline of events. Perhaps instead of just saying "the collapse will occur on Nov 16th, 2020" you might be able to find a few events that historically have occurred during a collapsing period of civilization and we could look at those together and come to an understanding about when most people would agree "civilization has collapsed" (i.e. when the supermarkets are empty, society has collapsed.) From here we might be able to suggest a date range in which an event is likely to occur, giving us a common point of reference for any future discussions.
Thank you for taking the time to read and any help you can give me :)
[Megathread] Tiananmen Square Massacre
Today, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) expends near-incalculable sums on internal security, deploys a veritable army of wumaos and high-tech tools (e.g. artificial intelligence) to stymie dissent and enforce censorship online, and works tirelessly to erase the ’89 Movement and Tiananmen Massacre from China’s collective memory. In Tiananmen Square, the vestiges of that meticulously censored battlefield are embodied in the repressive architecture and surveillance state milieu which naïve tourists, patriotic Chinese, and would-be protesters alike are subjected to. Still to this day, the Tiananmen Mothers are denied an opportunity to mourn and the event is purposefully omitted from the Chinese education. Engagement with this restive period of modern Chinese history has been carefully stewarded by the State: nationalists are inculcated with the beliefs that Tiananmen was a Western conspiracy, that the movement’s success would have derailed China’s growth story (despite the fact that China’s economic ascendancy was the result of laudable reformist/internationalists leveraging the help Western economists and their own previously repressed intellect), and that only the CCP can guarantee social stability and thus prosperity.
We remember Tiananmen now not for what might have been, but for what was—the electrifying spirit of the Chinese people, the hope that the students exuded, and the brutal crackdown which paved the way for ratcheting authoritarianism. We remember Tiananmen because the CCP have too long avoided a reckoning.
A Closer LookBackground
Tension between the reform imperative and all-encompassing Maoist influence permeated the CCP from Mao's death through Deng's reform and opening up and into the 80s. This remains a contentious period of modern Chinese history.
- Zhao Ziyang's reformist influence was instrumental in China's economic reforms (see: Gewirtz, 2017, Unlikely Partners), but by 1989, Party hardliners were resurgent. Reform-minded Hu Yaobang had already been purged 2 years prior.
- With Hu's death, big character posters began appearing on campuses like at Peking University. A discussion group was born, the movement took shape, and students called for dialogue.
- The students marched to Tiananmen on April 17, organizing a sit-in which produced their clear list of demands:
- Affirm Hu Yaobang's views on democracy and freedom as correct.
- Admit that the campaigns against spiritual pollution and bourgeois liberalization had been wrong.
- Publish information on the income of state leaders and their family members.
- Allow privately run newspapers and stop press censorship.
- Increase funding for education and raise intellectuals' pay.
- End restrictions on demonstrations in Beijing.
- Provide objective coverage of students in official media.
- There was no official government response until April 25 when a People's Daily editorial was released, reviling the movement as a "premeditated and organized turmoil with anti-party and anti-socialist motives" that would precipitate a "chaotic and unstable China without any future."
- Students initiated a hunger strike on May 13, two days before Gorbachev was scheduled to arrive in Beijing. Thousands of students participated, with over 9,000 hospitalizations recorded.
- At the movement's zenith, some 1.2 million people were estimated to be demonstrating in Tiananmen Square on May 19.
- May 19: Zhao Ziyang visits the square, asking the students to end their hunger strike, telling them "We came too late... You are still young students, still young, you have a long way to go. You are not like us, we are old. We don't matter." This was to be his final public appearance.
- Martial law was initiated on that same day.
- June 3: 200,000 troops are deployed in Beijing. Many hailed from the country's hinterlands like Shandong and Shanxi since Beijing troops were hesitant to act against their own people. Some generals and other ranking military officials reportedly rejected orders to march to Beijing to suppress the protests.
- Liu Xiaobo, having initiated a hunger strike two days prior, was one of the people who negotiated with the PLA. The students decided to leave the square peacefully--others agreed in a vote.
- Reports suggest that the PLA fired indiscriminately, leading to deaths of unarmed and uninvolved civilians.
- Military vehicles were set ablaze, but there are also reports of protesters working to protect soldiers.
- No official death toll has ever been released.
- June 5th: the famed Tank Man resistance is photographed.
- The reform movement languishes: Zhao Ziyang, then persona non grata, is confined to house arrest until his death in 2005. Hardliners firmly grip the reins of China's destiny.
- Freedom of speech restrictions
- Tightening of state control over the media
- Market reforms impeded as conservative voices return to prominence
- Openness to foreign ideas is hindered
- The death knell of revolutionary idealism as the people's true vanguard?
- Economic growth, the Party insists, cannot coincide with political freedom
- Social stability becomes the Party's guiding principle
- Ideological education is strengthened
- The bombastic, hard-line position recently echoed by the Global Times is that Tiananmen was "a vaccination for the Chinese society" to increase "immunity against any major political turmoil in the future."
- There has still been no official reckoning.
- Tank Man remains one of the most iconic photographs of the past century.
- In 2014, Louisa Lim found that only 15 of 100 students she interviewed at four of China's top universities could correctly identify the Tank Man photo. Even fewer were aware of the scale and impact of the movement.
- Tiananmen remains one of the most heavily censored, sensitive topics in China today, often agglomerated as one of the Three T's (Tiananmen, Taiwan, Tibet). It is not taught in the country's history books, barred from search engines, and scraped off the internet. Even scholarship on the subject has been purged from Chinese journals.
- the movement called for greater transparency, accountability, and media freedom. In all cases, the result was the opposite. Under Xi Jinping, Chinese censorship has reached new highs and the prognosis remains grim.
- The death toll (from a few hundred up to 10,000). While a cable from Alan Donald, the UK Ambassador to China, suggests in excess of 10,000 deaths, contemporary research hews closer to “a few hundred to a few thousand.”
- Tiananmen Square deaths. Spurred on by a cable released by Wikileaks in 2011, voices championing the belief that nobody died in Tiananmen Square see this as a useful refrain. Whether they died in the square or were murdered outside of it is immaterial.
- The disappeared. People have been “disappeared” in connection with the movement and this continues to this day as sympathizers, activists, and similarly recalcitrant voices are rooted out.
- American influence/CIA interference. Although Operation Yellowbird was a very real response, this does not point to CIA interference in the actual movement. It should be noted that the CCP has released no tangible evidence of CIA covert ops leading to Tiananmen. The movement was grassroots and truly remarkable in that sense.
- Did strategic nonviolence give way to extremism? This has been an enduring question, the flames of which were fanned by Chai Ling's comments in The Gate of Heavenly Peace that "what we are actually hoping for is bloodshed" and "Only when the square is awash with blood will the people open their eyes." For this, and for her otherwise 'you're with me or against me' attitude, she has become an especially divisive figure. This is an interesting talking point, but using it to discount the entire movement is beyond the pale.
ResourcesCollections of Images
- China News Digest Tiananmen Photo Series. These photos, including some stomach-churningly graphic ones, recount the massacre and the ensuing days.
- Jian Liu's recently revealed photographs are available through The New York Times and NPR. The hope of the Chinese people is palpable in some of these.
- Getty Images has a voluminous archive of photographs from June 4th and the movement. Note that some gruesome pictures are included.
- The Turnley Brothers were there documenting what happened. Unable to turn up a full collection of their photographs, National Geographic's overview is still remarkable.
- The Gate of Heavenly Peace, a documentary released in 1995, is not without controversy (see above), but it uses a tremendous amount of archival footage and is probably the best longform encapsulation of the events. You can view it in its entirety on YouTube: Part 1 and Part 2.
- "A Soldier's Perspective" was recently released by ABC News Australia and recounts one soldier's experience when his commander defied orders and refused to bring his troops to quash the civilian movement.
- "China tried to erase the memory of the Tiananmen massacre. These people won’t forget" by the Washington Post. This great video includes interviews with Wu'er Kaixi (a student leader at Tiananmen), Jeff Widener (the Tank Man photographer), Louisa Lim (author of The People's Republic of Amnesia), and Yaqiu Wang (a HRW researcher).
- Al Jazeera: "It Happened in Tiananmen Square."
- Newly restored footage, "Black Night in June", was released by Arthur Kent and includes his personal recollections.
- "Footage shows what really happened in lead-up to Tiananmen Square massacre" (ABC News Australia) includes still more archival footage interspersed with interviews with prominent figures. This, too, includes powerful footage.
- A good jumping-off point here is Oxford's "The 1989 Tiananmen Movement and Its Aftermath" article, essentially Wikipedia on steroids with a bit more editorial influence.
- Harvard's Fairbank Center recently held a panel discussion on Tiananmen at 30 including some prominent voices. You can view it here in its entirety.
- One chapter in Nepstad's (2011) Nonviolent Revolutions: Civil Resistance in the Late 20th Century turns the microscope on "The Tiananmen Tragedy and the Failed Uprising in China".
- Princeton's Contemporary China Reference List is outdated by now, but it still contains a cornucopia of resources for taking a closer look at Tiananmen and its impact.
- Recent research has considered diverse topics including the movement's influence on Chinese popular music, the use of the social stability discourse as Party-legitimizing mechanism, the impact it has had on Hong Kong movements, the development of China's modern censorship regime, and broader impacts.
- Louisa Lim's People's Republic of Amnesia: Tiananmen Revisited. Published by Oxford UP, this one is monumentally significant. Lim is an outspoken voice these days.
- Wang Dan: "What I learned leading the Tiananmen Protests".
- Charles Hutzler and Chun Han Wong, "China's effort to erase the June 4th protests from history."
- CNN Tiananmen Fast Facts
- China is awash in popular media sources on Tiananmen, so just glance at our front page or search through earlier posts.
We've created this megathread to help educate people on the event, organize as much information as possible so that people can actually take an interest in it beyond karma-whoring, and, ultimately, to set the tone. If you find something interesting but perhaps not substantial enough to merit its own thread, please post it here. If you're dying to share a meme, but suspect we might delete it, post it in this thread rather than clogging up the main feed.
If you haven't gotten the picture already, please note: Beyond just being an important event, this was a somber one. China has seen enough "Nothing happened" and "nevar forget" memes to last a lifetime. That said, here's a breakdown of the type of stuff we don't want to see (and which we'll be deleting):
- Low effort shitposts
- nth time reposts
- Unoriginal soapboxing
- The usual detritus (racism, culture wars, the outrage machine)