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IBM (NYSE: IBM) - An In-depth Stock Analysis


Good evening everyone. This post will be an in-depth look at IBM, and is likely going to end up being a bit lengthy. The stock is in a bit of a weird position, there is no doubt there will be people on both sides of the fence when looking at this stock. First we will take a look at the business for those unfamiliar, then the financials, and lastly their potential road ahead.
There will be a few questions we are looking to answer:
  1. Is there revenue growth?
  2. Is there earnings growth?
  3. Is the company really leveraged? (Low/High debt)
  4. Is there strong cash flow?

IBM - International Business Machines:

International Business Machines' mdel is to be a part of everything IT's enterprise needs. The company primarily sells:
  • Infrastructure services (37% of revenue),
  • Software (29% of revenue),
  • IT services (23% of revenue),
  • Hardware (8% of revenues).
IBM operates in 175 countries and has over 80,000 business partners to service 5,200 clients – which includes 95% of all Fortune 500. IBM’s outward impact is substantial. For example, IBM manages 90% of all credit card transactions globally and is responsible for 50% of all wireless connections in the world.
- The company has been able to use its large free cash flow to invest heavily in the future (R&D and acquisitions) as well as buy back significant amounts of its own stock. Additionally the cash flow is allow the company to transition its larger customer base from old lower margin businesses to new higher margin, higher growth products and services.
- The company consistently tops the annual list of U.S. patent beneficiaries.
- The acquisition of Red Hat is transforming the company toward new Cloud technology.
- IBM’s old mainframe business is in a long term decline. As we will see in the next section, over the last 10 years the company’s Revenue growth is negative, Cash Flow from Operations (CFO) is barely positive.
- While the stock share buybacks were listed as a positive, they are also a negative. IBM's Earnings Per Share (EPS) is only positive because they bought back so many shares.
- And most importantly, data and analytics businesses face fierce competition from corporations such as Amazon, Microsoft, and others.

Financial History:

There is going to be a lot to unpack here, let's look at the general trend here.
Year Revenue EBITDA Debt Debt / Earning
2011 106,916 26,361 27,163 1.0
2013 98,368 27,478 29,680 1.4
2015 81,741 20,372 38,702 1.9
2016 79,919 18,551 40,902 2.2
2017 79,139 16,223 45,086 2.8
2018 79,591 16,711 42,656 2.6
2019 77,147 16,844 66,883 4.0
The revenue has decreased approx 4% each year over the last decade, earnings has also decreased down to $16 Billion while their debt has ballooned to over $66.8 Billion setting the current debt/earnings ratio to 4x...big ouch.
Looking back at the first chart there are two things that need to be pointed out. Firstly, the decline in revenue and EBITDA has been leveling out, from 2017-2019 we can see there hasn't been as much of a decline. Secondly, the ballooning in debt in 2019 is attributed to IMB acquiring Red Hat.
So let's answer some of the questions.
  1. Is there revenue growth? - No
  2. Is there earnings growth? - No
  3. Is the company really leveraged? (Low/High debt) - Lots of Debt
  4. Is there strong cash flow? Hmmm.
This is where things are going to get interesting. and less gloomy. (But it is still gloomy)

Year Cash Flow from Operations Capital Expenditures FCF/E Ratio
2011 19,846 4,108 16,787
2015 17,225 3,579 13,594
2019 14,770 2,286 31,365
What is really interesting, and a little weird here is they are generating ~$15 Billion in cash flow, and only putting ~$2.3 Billion back into the company, leaving around $12 Billion of free cash flow. When we look at their Free Cash to Equity we can see this has sharply rose, despite declining revenue and earnings.
At the current stock levels the free cash flow yield over the last decade has been ~11%. So if they can continue to stop their decline, or even turn around at this point there could be strong profit potential.
Let's quickly look into where the money is coming from.
Revenue Sector 2018 2019 Year-Year Change
Cloud & Cognitive Software 22,209 23,200 +6%
Global Business Services 16,595 16,634 +2.4%
Global Tech Services 29,146 27,361 -3.7%
Looking at only the top 3 of their revenue sectors, we can see their Cloud & Business services growing at a ~2.65% weighted, and their Tech dropping by 3.7% from 2018 to 2019. This is potentially promising and their new CFO and CEO are investing heavily into this Cloud services. From their prospectus they are projecting potential 60% growth revenue models.
This also does not take into account the potential from their Red Hat acquisition.

So what's the big if?

The big "IF" is whether or not they can turn the business around from where it is currently at or if it will just continue to decline. The earnings/revenue/debt numbers look terrifying right now, but strong cash flow is what allows companies to survive into the future. If IBM can increase their revenue and earnings, pay down debt, and maintain or increase their current cash flow there is a potential for a strong return.

Some other numbers:

NOTE: Current for November 2020 and very likely to change.
Current Annual Payout / Share $6.52
Yield 5.84%
10 Yr Div Growth Rate 11.6
3 Yr Div Growth Rate 5.3
1 Yr Div Growth Rate 3.5
Current EPS Payout Ratio 72.77%
Years on Consecutive Div Increase 25 Years
As it stands right now, the company is remaining committed to the dividend payouts. They currently have the cash flow to support it, however the payout ratio is already 72%. To maintain this their revenue will need to increase in the coming years.

Final Thoughts:

IBM has been beaten down and currently sits in an interesting position. It is a global behemoth of a company with a wide moat, it is very intertwined in many different services, yet, over the last decade, it has languished financially under their previously poor leadership.
Picking this up, maintaining your current position, or staying far away depends on your personal risk tolerance. They have been declining, but the decline has slowed. Their growth in the Cloud sector is becoming more profitable, but it has many competitors there. There was a change in upper leadership. They have high levels or debt, but high levels of cash flow. So much is going on. (They are also involved in crypto - Stellar Lumens for those interested in that, won't be talking about it in detail here)
Ultimately, you need to ask yourself, do you believe in this company?
I hope everyone found this post interesting, please supplement this with your own research. What is everyone's opinion about the company?
As always, thanks for reading, and have a good day/night!
EDIT: Fixed some math errors. Thanks everyone for the comments, remember this post wasn't an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell, just something to get brain juices going.
submitted by 036Gooddaysir036 to dividends

NSA: We've learned our lesson after foreign spies used one of our crypto backdoors – but we can't say how exactly

It's said the NSA drew up a report on what it learned after a foreign government exploited a weak encryption scheme, championed by the US spying agency, in Juniper firewall software.
However, curiously enough, the NSA has been unable to find a copy of that report.
On Wednesday, Reuters reporter Joseph Menn published an account of US Senator Ron Wyden's efforts to determine whether the NSA is still in the business of placing backdoors in US technology products.
Wyden (D-OR) opposes such efforts because, as the Juniper incident demonstrates, they can backfire, thereby harming national security, and because they diminish the appeal of American-made tech products.
But Wyden's inquiries, as a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, have been stymied by lack of cooperation from the spy agency and the private sector. In June, Wyden and various colleagues sent a letter to Juniper CEO Rami Rahim asking about "several likely backdoors in its NetScreen line of firewalls."
Juniper acknowledged in 2015 that “unauthorized code” had been found in ScreenOS, which powers its NetScreen firewalls. It's been suggested that the code was in place since around 2008.
The Reuters report, citing a previously undisclosed statement to Congress from Juniper, claims that the networking biz acknowledged that "an unnamed national government had converted the mechanism first created by the NSA."
Wyden staffers in 2018 were told by the NSA that a "lessons learned" report about the incident had been written. But Wyden spokesperson Keith Chu told Reuters that the NSA now claims it can't find the file. Wyden's office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The reason this malicious code was able to decrypt ScreenOS VPN connections has been attributed to Juniper's "decision to use the NSA-designed Dual EC Pseudorandom Number Generator."
The company has yet to clarify exactly why it made that decision. Juniper did not respond to a request for comment.
When former NSA contractor Edward Snowden leaked agency secrets in 2013, Reuters reported that years earlier security firm RSA, now part of storage biz EMC, had accepted a $10m contract with the NSA to use Dual Elliptic Curve, or Dual EC, encryption. RSA at the time denied some of the claims without disputing the existence of the contract.
The NSA had been keen to see Dual EC adopted and worked with the US Commerce Department to promote it. But in 2007, two Microsoft researchers reported there were serious flaws with the Dual Elliptic Curve Deterministic Random Bit Generator that led it to produce weak cryptography. By 2014, US standards agency NIST withdrew support for Dual EC.
Juniper at some point between 2008 and 2009 appears to have added Dual EC support to its products at the request of "a single customer," widely believed to be the NSA.
After Snowden's disclosures about the extent of US surveillance operations in 2013, the NSA is said to have revised its policies for compromising commercial products. Wyden and other lawmakers have tried to learn more about these policies but they've been stonewalled, according to Reuters.
The NSA also declined to provide backdoor policy details to Reuters, stating that it doesn't share "specific processes and procedures." The news agency says three former senior intelligence officials have confirmed that NSA policy now requires a fallout plan with some form of warning in the event an implanted back door gets discovered and exploited.
submitted by jpc4stro to cybersecurity

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