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CTSO - my lotto ticket

I usually don't post my trade ideas, but giving this a shot..
Over the last week, I've built myself a position/4 month lottery ticket of 19:1 odds minimum.This post is NOT to encourage others to copy that, but to share my thinking behind it and hope to hear interesting critiques. I may lose all my premium in this position, but its a risk I'm willing to take. As a degen and given my perception of the odds, I gotta do what I gotta do.
The trade is long $CTSO call options and stocks. The post has 3 sections -
  1. thesis (as concise as I could make it);
  2. bet/trade structure;
  3. significant risks/further reading;
  • About: Cytosorbents ($CTSO) is a biotech company focusing on blood-purification via blood filters (cytosorbs) mainly for use in cardiac surgery patients, but also in other critically-ill patients.
  • Summary Financials: $CTSO trades at an enterprise value(EV) of $280mm/mkt cap of $350mm. They've been growing at 60% yoy growth, with current annual revenues at $30mm, cash-on-hand of $90mm and annualized cash burn of $5m.
  • Current WS consensus: Consensus stock price from wall street analysts is $15 (but who listens to them)
  • Primary catalyst: The firm got breakthrough FDA designation to remove ticagrelor in cardiac surgery patients in Apr 2020, and the bet is on them getting full approval over the next few months. They already have EU approval for this, and FDA approval will open US markets and increase the total addressable market (TAM) by anywhere between $250million to $1.5billion per year. REMOVE trial results are expected in second half 2020 (topline results expected anytime now as trial is complete), and a positive result should confirm the path to FDA approval.
  • Secondary catalysts: Not counting on these, but good to have:
    • earnings outperformance (low expectations currently in spite of growth trajectory) - company delivered 60% yoy growth in Q1 and Q2 despite elective surgeries having a slowdown in Q2 (deficit made up by COVID use) and became commercially available in Latin countries in June.
    • Biotech sector RV convergence: I notice many biotechs trade on hope and having market cap of $1-2bn, even without any product approval/manufacturing in place. Here's a company growing at 60%, with a product that has been used >100k times across multiple indications with positive results, and has EU approval but trading at such discounted levels. Think its missing a flagship/activist investor who could serve as a microphone for the company.
    • EUA (emergency use authorization) for use in severe COVID patients getting extended/broadened;
    • Accelerated progress in their HemoDefend product (universal plasma transfer technology that removes restriction on A/B/AB/O donor vs. recipient matching): DoD granted ~$5mm in grants this year - $1mm on Friday itself;
    • BigPharma acquisition or collaboration
  • Conservative Valuation: Given positive REMOVE results and hence FDA approval, we assume incremental $500mm TAM (lower end of $0.25-$1.5bn), I expect stock to be at $25 minimum
    • TAM of $500mm x 0.2 market share = $100mm revenues additional -> $130mm per year
    • 75% gross profit margin = $100mm gross profit;
    • 2x S&A expenses of $40mm and constant R&D expenses of $10mm = $50mio EBIT
    • EV/EBIT of 20 = $1bn valuation = approx. $25 stock price
    • If market sees it as incremental TAM of $1.5bn, the stock should do 7x minimum. Further, the approval could be seen as validation for the company and their role in critical care management, and potentially unlocks usage for broader indications (as this is a broad spectrum therapeutic), and bigpharma collaborations.
I am long 330 (x100) call options at strike $15 for 19Feb21. I bought them for approx. $0.5 per contract. If my view is realized, that should mean bet-payoff is 19:1 (i.e. $9.5 profit).
Is this a positive expected value (EV) bet? I don't know, but here's my subjective probabilities:
  • Probability of getting FDA/REMOVE news by Feb = 1/3 (breakthrough designation 6 months ago so final approval in 10 months I hope)
  • Probability that FDA news is approval = 1/2 (conservative given EU approval and FDA breakthrough approval already + given case results etc)
  • Probability of FDA approval, hence = 1/6 (0.33 * 0.5)
Expected value per option contract (x100) = 1/6 * (+9.5) + 5/6 * (-0.5) = $1.16 (x100). (If I regard probability is lower by 50%, it is still a positive EV bet of +$0.2)
Using Kelly's criterion, given the odds and payoffs, I should bet 12% of my bet stack. (If I regard probability is lower by 50% , I should bet 4% of my stack)
I've mitigated some of the risks by also buying some stock since that has no expiry limitations (probability of win = 1/3 since no expiry; bet-payoff with a stop at -50% = 6:1; Kelly's criterion: 22%; with 50% lower probability: 3%)
Kelly criterion is just a starting point, I further took into account how much I am comfortable losing and leaving some dry powder for a pull-back. To start with, I've decided to go with an investment of $17k in options right now, and >$100k in stocks. I will upsize/downsize as I get more news, but that's the position for now.
I'm not willing to imagine what happens if market views it as an incremental $1.5bn TAM. (You're a voice in my head. No, you're a voice in mine. You're a fucking hallucination, why can't I get rid of you.)
Significant Risks:
TL;DR, I think the stock is massively undervalued, given the potential for the company, the upcoming price catalysts, the successful track record against the backdrop of current stock valuations. My options bet has a conservative payoff of 19:1 if I get it right (possibly more), and if not, hopefully the stock moves >20% to make up for the lost premium.
P.S. - Hope you enjoyed it, and you feel encouraged to share your DD posts.
EDIT: For those interested to play this, think using stocks is probably better than options. Vol is quite high, and options markets are illiquid. Plus you are not subject to expiry limitations/timing issues and the odds are quite good there too. (It took me 4 days to build my calls slowly)
submitted by DeepValueOptions to investing

Model Y: 5k miles in and here's what I think so far.

Took delivery of a black on black performance package at the end of June. I was lucky enough to have received a vehicle within a week of placing the order (my hypothesis is since I was in the Bay Area they bumped me to the top of the list to meet Q2 numbers).
Issues from the factory:

  • Scratch marks on the hood. Corners looked like someone took a brillo pad to it. Tesla service managed to buff it out.
  • Paint chips on the panel where the trunk meets the roof. Looks like an object got lodged and the trunk was opened chipping the paint (but no dent). Tesla used touch up paint until it’s barely noticeable.
  • Rubber trim lining the trunk was bent out of shape. Tesla managed to steam/press it out.
  • Carbon fiber spoiler was coming off. Tesla replaced with a new one.
  • Bottom trunk lid had the sticker torn off. Tesla replaced with a new one.
  • Car started to track to the right after a few hundred miles. Brought it in at 2k and they performed an alignment at no cost. Steering wheel still seems to be a smidge off (to the right) but car seems to track straight.
  • Dual Motor badge was crooked. I didn’t notice till last week. Tesla Mobile Service came out to repair but some of the paint came off with the badge. Have scheduled to bring the car in where they’ll have a outside party touch up the paint before reapplying the badge (slated for next week).
  • Turn signals - probably the bane of my existence. Turn signals won’t activate 1/10 times. Have had this looked at twice, the first time Tesla replaced a part. The second the mobile tech said he “reseated some loose wires”. Still not reliable.
What I added:

  • Tint. Needed this pretty badly to help the AC system. I only got my sides and rears tinted, but I would do the windshield and roof if I found a professional who could do it right.
  • Screen protector in matte. Helped with the glare, would recommend.
  • Vinyl cover on center all the piano black in the cabin (console and doors).

  • Paint job is pretty bad. A few rock chips already and if I look at it too hard I’ll scratch the clear coat. Bought the touch-up paint so will apply that soon.
  • Rims look great, I banged up 3 of them already driving in a very tight parking garage. Really wish Tesla had the 360 camera view here. I don’t get how they expect parking to work well without that (I’ve seen videos of self parking scratching rims and straight up hitting pillars). Good news is rim repair is just $100 each.
  • One pedal driving is amazing. Impressed at how the brakes are blended into going from a roll to a stop, really intuitive.
  • Acceleration is amazing. The ability to zip by a semi or a truck on the freeway puts a smile on my face everytime.
  • Handling is ok, obviously not a sedan but acceptable. I do miss how my 3 series feels doing 80 and going into a slight left or right on the freeway. Not a big deal though.
  • Having driver information on the center screen isn’t great. It’s barely acceptable for me. If I want to confirm I can make a lane change I want to check mirrors and go. I tried to incorporate checking the display for added safety but it’s just too cumbersome. I really wish Tesla included lane change indicators on the rear view mirrors.
  • No auto-dimming rearview mirrors but I find myself not missing them at all.
  • Sentry mode is awesome.
  • Phantom braking is not awesome. Happens maybe 1/10 times (maybe less) but I’m fairly certain that one day it’ll get me rear ended. Pretty dumbfounded how this hasn’t been fixed yet.
  • Turning radius makes it feel like a big car, I think it’s a foot bigger than the Model 3 which shouldn’t be that bad. Not a big deal though.
  • Usable range is probably somewhere in the low 200s for me. I charge up to 80% and will run it to about 20%. I would recommend 24/7 access to a charger at your residence if this is your primary vehicle to any of my friends who don’t know much about electric vehicle range (how it can fluctuate with weather, road conditions and driving habits). I don’t think anyone on these boards needs to be told since you are here reading up on everything you can =) and have already heard this
  • Electricity savings over gas is probably at an average half the cost for me. This is based on roughly how much I would pay for 200 miles on electricity vs gas compared to my previous car (E90). It’s not bad, there are clear savings but it might not be amazing depending on your previous ICE vehicle.
  • I think I heard Elon refer to the Model 3 and Y as ‘entry level luxury vehicles’, and yeah it is pretty entry level. Quality of materials is barely acceptable for the price, missing a lot of neat options and features other cars in the same category have available. I can see it in the seating, stitching, etc. Heck the floor mats should be telling enough, they are pretty flimsy and cheap-ish. Not premium. I knew this going in and decided it was worth it not to have an engine and deal with all the hassles of THAT. No regrets, but I know what I’m missing out on.
  • Overall if I got the chance to do it again I wouldn’t change a thing. Sometimes I’ll see a Macan or GLE AMG go by and drool a bit and wonder ‘what if…’ But the Macan is overdue for a interior refresh and rumors are Porsche is going full electric for that model in a couple of years anyways and the GLE AMG price tag put it in a whole other league plus the MPG is crazy bad.
submitted by permanentmarker1 to teslamotors

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